I will be rambling a little more often now that there is Invest 97L has formed. As I posted some time ago here that after observing the long range forecast models I had concern that there was a possibility of another tropical system developing in the Caribbean. Models suggested that it would head north.
Please remember to check official information at nhc.noaa.gov. These are just the ramblings of a sailor about the weather, it just so happens to be hurricane season and I enjoy rambling about the weather. I am an artist by trade and you can find my work at this link.
UPDATE:
As of 1600 EST / 2100Z Invest 97L is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen.
It now appears that this is going to form into a storm to a fairly high level of certainty. The lucky part is that so far the intensity is looking to be lower, the track appears to be Gulfside, but there is still indication that this may make a NE turn inside of Florida and run up the eastern coastline where it may impact our current location. I do however firmly believe that this storm is going to impact either the Loopers, or the Southbound ICW traffic, or both. If you are a newer boater and a part of either of these groups I would recommend placing a pause on your southbound travels at least until the track reaches a higher level of certainty.
While most current model guidance is indicating a gulf side storm there is still a some level of uncertainty. This is another one of those systems that I hope that our friends in The Keys are preparing for. Ideally this is nothing worse than the winter storms we had last December and January there.
Here is (at the time of writing) current intensity graph. Please always note the date / time when reading my ramblings as not to confuse this with current information. This intensity however so far looks pretty tame; at least for the region that recently spun up one of the strongest hurricanes on record. With sea temps still elevated I am curious to see how strong this system gets, maybe we will have the indication that the season is nearly over.
*Note that between writing and reviewing prior to publish that the tracks and intensity graphs changed. The track graph is skewed more Gulfside and the intensity increased significantly. We have seen the forecasted intensify increase with other storms this year and this may brew into a major hurricane. It is still “tame” as mentioned above.
Then we have this lovely demonstration of the GFS’s paranoia. A second storm, again. The GFS had predicted a second storm when Milton was spinning up in the Caribbean. Both the storm that never happened and this storm have been showing up in multiple runs for a while now. Am I concerned?, maybe. These storms are generating in different regions of the ocean and for the most part will have their own energy supplies independent of the other storm. Does this make a second storm more likely to actually form?, I am not sure. I am going to take a guess that it will. In fact at this time the National Hurricane Center is tracking two separate disturbances which are potentially forming in the waters just north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
Does this make a second storm more likely to actually form?, I am not sure. I am going to take a guess that it will. In fact at this time the National Hurricane Center is tracking two separate disturbances which are potentially forming in the waters just north of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Either way between the model and the NHC’s outlook it seems clear that The Keys, and southern Florida are in the cross hairs for these storms. If you are in this area I would recommend bolstering your supplies in the event of a secondary storm and reviewing where you will be seeking shelter in the event that there is intensification of either.
I am going to omit the other weather models for this post, not due to any particular reason aside from the fact that they are not illustrating much other than variations in intensity. The current ECMWF model is indicating two tropical lows in the general areas. I encourage you to check out the models yourself at Tropical Tidbits. I source most of my graphics from him.
Remember: always seek official information from sources like the National Hurricane Center.
This is a great opportunity for a cruiser to relax for a bit and enjoy where they are, maybe take in a few more happy hours at that new place you have come to enjoy, or to enjoy a day or two more at a particularly beautiful anchorage.
Alas, the sales pitch, I would rather sell art than host ads on this site.
If you like reading these articles please consider browsing either my Online Fine Art Photography Gallery here, or checking out the Animaashi Snapshot Series here. The Snapshot Series is a fun series captured by chance with my phone as I wonder the towns and areas we visit, these are offered for sale as small prints and as a calendar. My Fine Art Photography is a much more disciplined routine using true dedicated camera system and is offered in a wide variety of formats and sizes. As an artist facing sever health issues and disability, your patronage keeps us moving.
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