It has been a week or so since I wrote about the weather in early November. The models have been consistently showing the development of anything from a tropical low to a hurricane occurring in the Caribbean and moving northwards. Some of the models are showing a strong system moving off into the Gulf, and others are showing are showing a storm roaming up the eastern coastline. I am going to drop in some of these models below along with the current official information. Forecast models by TropicalTidbits.com

Officially there are concerns for the development of a storm as indicated below by the NHC graphic.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so.  Gradual 
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system 
drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or 
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy 
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the 
western Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Northeastern Caribbean Sea and Greater Antilles:
A trough of low pressure located near Puerto Rico is producing a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Greater 
Antilles and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic and the 
northeastern Caribbean. Slow development of this system is possible 
during the next few days as it moves west-northwestward near the 
Greater Antilles.  After that time, this system is expected to be 
absorbed into the low pressure area over the Caribbean.  Regardless 
of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next 
several days from the northern Leeward Islands westward across 
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to eastern Cuba and the southeastern 
Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

The most recent GFS is indicating a system that will develop and impact Cuba, the Keys, and then moving on towards Yucatan. The GFS has been variable but consistent in the development of this system.

Another concerning component of this is a secondary storm potential developing off the southern Bahamas.

The other models are also showing this gulf-side tendency.

The AI model of the Euro model is showing significantly less development but a similar track. This is repeated in the standard Euro model as well. The European models have been more reluctant to show much formation and are generally better with tropical weather, however with the consistency over the past week of the GFS I am concerned that there will be more development.

The traditional Euro model is not showing much development, but the same track as the GFS. The sea surface temps are higher than typical and so far this season we have been seeing more development than the models have indicated.

The CMC / GEM model has been showing significantly more development than other models aside from the GFS. The smaller moving image directly below was from a few instances ago and represents more of the typical development shown in this particular model.

Personally I am still hesitant to rush southwards at this time, as the models have been showing the storm running on the coastline to the Carolinas. While this may not be the case for the current models, I still maintain that a lesser storm is always preferred. However we are preparing to start our southward travels soon.

Enjoying our content? Joe and his family live full-time aboard Animashi, embracing a life of adventure along the coastline. However, Joe faces a challenging and debilitating autoimmune disorder that makes traditional work impossible. The only effective treatment is to remain near the coast and travel to avoid harmful allergens. If you appreciate our journey, please consider exploring Joe’s stunning photography. You can view his SV Animashi Snapshot Series on this site or browse his primary art collection at JoeClarkPhotographer.com.

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