For those of you who have been in a marina or anchorage with us, you know that I will ramble on about the weather for some time no matter the season. Hurricane season is one of those where I will pay more attention and go on for a while longer. This is the first post in a new format to ramble on about the weather. As we consider our southern sail on the Atlantic ICW or the outside overnight hops I am taking this long range GFS predicted storm seriously.

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I have been looking ahead as I usually do into the deep reaches of the long range GFS forecast, as I do in the summer season. This long range sightings can easily drive one paranoid as when in season forecasted hurricanes frequently clutter the viewer. I will typically ignore these as they are common, the ones I pay attention to are the ones that are forming in the general vicinity time and time again, and across multiple forecast models. By no means am I going to claim to be anything more than a weather enthusiast, but this tells me that the conditions are going to be right for something to happen. Watching the long range GFS lately has set off my internal alarm.

(See TropicalTidbits.com for more information)

This storm has been showing up for days now, maybe even a week. Do not take this as anything for granted, but when the systems start to show up time and time again in these models, something is going to happen. The iterations of these models are always changing and when we get within range for the other models to start picking this forecast up then we will have a better idea. But for now it looks like there is going to be an early November storm. It appears to form in the Caribbean and then shoot off northward landing somewhere between Mobile and Miami and then running up the eastern coastline to the Carolinas. Currently winds upwards of 115 MPH are indicated in the GFS as it makes landfall.

You can see that this area is a note of concern on the tropics hazard outlook:

The problem that this potential storm poses for us is that we are looking to head south soon. I know that a lot of cruisers are migrating en mass at the moment southwards. The sheer number of these boats are going to take up a majority of the marina space and anchorages and when dealing with limited space and a potential cat 2 -3 hurricane I think it would be best to just relax in the Carolinas for a little while longer and enjoy the fall weather. I would caution other cruisers to consider this storm as a strong threat as they make their long term plans as it is usually a less pleasant experience the further south you get. Since most of the current information also indicates that it will run the coastline, there really isn’t going to be anywhere to go to get out of its way except into the Chesapeake.

Safe travels to all.

-Joe